Here’s another decades old article I decided to edit and update as it addresses an issue that’s been in the news a lot of late, especially in some of the mid-western US states.
For years, it seemed white-tailed deer numbers were only going in one direction – up. No matter where one looked, deer populations were on the rise. In some parts of North America, particularly the mid-west, the far west and in southern Canada, they exploded.
Hunting was fantastic. Each year new state or provincial harvest levels were reached and record book bucks were being taken everywhere. Deer hunters will talk about the turn of the century deer hunts for a long, long time.
But good times don’t last forever. In a growing number of locales, the recent story is more often about decline. In some areas it’s more akin to a crash. Except, it seems, in urban and suburban landscapes. Towns and cities everywhere increasingly report problems with nuisance deer.
In the northerly fields and forests, though, not so much.
Hunters are having trouble coping with the crash, in part because it’s a new experience.
Numerous factors can set off a population crash. Predation, disease, habitat change, weather and hunter harvest, usually in some sort of combination with one another, are commonly blamed. There’s always someone or something to blame when deer numbers stumble.
Winter
In northern forests, a harsh, severe winter can trigger a crash, but more often, it takes two or three successive bad winters to do in a herd.
Snow is a scourge for deer because it forces them to burn a lot of energy just to move around. Deep snow covers up the best food. Bitingly cold temperatures don’t help. Deer, weakened by snow and cold can get sick and are more susceptible to predators, disease and parasites. In deep snow, even healthy deer can be easy prey for packs of wolves.
In short, winters can be hard – very hard – on deer.
Historical Trends
Many areas of North America where deer have, in recent times, been common to abundant, historically had few deer. On northern and western ranges, for a variety of reasons, there’s been a general shift from large, herding species like caribou and elk, and sometimes mule deer, to the smaller and more solitary whitetail.
In many places, deer are essentially an invasive species.
Since the appearance of whitetails, around a 150 years or so ago, the numbers of deer in any given area has typically been a series of contractions and expansions. The recurring pattern is mostly similar: numbers grow, then skyrocket, crash and rebuild. A complete cycle might take few decades to play out.
The late Patrick Karns, a great Minnesota biologist, postulated that deer – and moose – went through cycles of abundance and scarcity across vast landscapes every 40 to 60 years or so.
Cycles can sometimes be measured or timed by crashes. A crash is always a shock to hunters because they occur relatively infrequently. When hunters grow up during a period of mild winters, there tends to be a lot of deer and hunting is good. Sometimes, things just seem to get better and better.
But what goes up, eventually and almost always, comes down.
Ups and Downs
Contrary to the popular notion that nature is in balance, nature tends to be in a constant state of flux, and mostly out-of-balance. Deer, in a constant struggle for survival, are adept at taking advantage of favourable conditions, and quick to exploit an opening. So when conditions are good, deer flourish. But when conditions deteriorate, deer decline. Occasionally, a tipping point is reached that sees the population crash. It’s all very normal.
When deer numbers are high for extended times in forested habitats, they can literally eat themselves out of house and home. But as long as winters are relatively snow-free, deer numbers can stay high. With little or no snow, deer can thrive even if food is scarce – sometimes the best food might be leaves from trees like poplars that fall to the forest floor.
On arid, western ranges, deer may rely on brushy draws, coulees and river bottoms for browse when snow cover is extensive. But when successive winters are relatively snow-free, deer have access to thousands of acres of open range to feed.
A long string of exceptionally mild winters, on ranges where long, snowy winters are the norm, is both a blessing and a curse for deer and hunters. Deer initially thrive and hunting can be great – but as deer numbers climb, habitats take a beating. Often, the average size of individual deer declines and health problems become prevalent. Antler size diminishes.
Hordes of hungry deer can virtually strip the range of everything that’s edible. Towards the extreme, shrubs that deer like to eat begin to disappear, gnawed to nothingness. Even tree seedlings fail to establish. Prolonged periods of abundance can mess up habitat for a long time.
When food becomes limiting trouble lies ahead. When a severe winter does come along, there’s not enough food to go around. How bad the losses are to the deer herd will vary, but losses as high as 90% have been recorded.
Despite declines in hunting success, most biologists look at a crash as being more good news than bad – although the deer and most deer hunters probably wouldn’t agree.
The good news is that a setback where deer numbers fall gives damaged feeding habitats a chance to recover. For the remaining deer, food will be more abundant and nutritious. Plus, many of the smaller, weak, sick and very old deer will have perished, leaving only the most fit individuals. That’s good for the overall health of the herd as well as improving the genetic make-up of the herd.
But there’s no doubt a crash is devastating.
In some cases, deer recover from a crash at a snails pace. It’s estimated it took almost two decades for deer to recover following a historic deer population crash in northern Maine. In parts of northeastern Ontario, deer have never recovered to former levels of abundance after being slammed by a series of bad winters in the late 1950’s and early 60’s.
After the initial crash, deer populations typically experience further declines. A major factor can be predation by wolves (including coyotes).
At first, predators cash-in from a crash. A lot of weak, sick and starving deer can make hunting easy. In fact, a hard winter with high deer mortality sees wolves get through the winter fat and happy.
But trouble looms.
In the immediate aftermath of a crash, predator populations are still more or less at the level they were with the bigger, before the crash, deer population.
So with a lot fewer deer, the still abundant wolves are on the hunt. Many of the remaining deer get gobbled up. Eventually, wolves run out of deer, and their numbers drop too. Before that happens, there can be a lot of carnage. It’s especially bad if the next winter or two are also ones with a lot of snow.
That’s not all.
From what I have observed in Ontario, I think some packs of wolves actually concentrate on finding and killing big bucks. And it makes sense – big bucks are weakened after weeks of sparring and fighting and wooing and mating. And they are smelly, so are relatively easy to find.
In the aftermath of a crash, and for several years thereafter, or at least until wolf numbers take a hit, it can be really, really tough for hunters to find a big (old) buck.
Because no two years are the same, estimating over-winter deer loss is a bit of a guessing game. However, research by folks like Louis Verme and John Ozoga shed light on what counts most, and their findings from years ago have been integrated into many of the models deer management practitioners use regularly today. Amazingly, it takes very few environmental measurements to get a good estimate of over-winter deer mortality.
Years of study distilled mountains of evidence to produce some basic truths – for one, it’s generally acknowledged deer are in trouble once snow depths reach about 18 inches, or 50 cm. The longer the snow hangs around, the worse it gets – as a ‘rule of thumb’, when there’s 50 cm of snow or more on the ground for 50 consecutive days, deer mortality will be substantial.
Sometimes, like in Maine and northeastern Ontario, deer populations take years and years to recover. But on these and many other northern ranges, the failure of deer to quickly recover to former levels of abundance is a sign of a bigger problem.
Although it’s subtle, long recovery times are usually linked to changes at landscape level.
Across a wide swath of North America’s deer range, tens of thousands of acres of once great deer habitat, created by decades of land-clearing and extensive logging, are now reverting back to a more mature forest.
With the collapse of the pulp and paper industry there’s a lot less logging in northern forests. Newspapers were what consumed vast swaths of forest annually, but those days are gone, the victim of bits and bytes.
Logging practices elsewhere have also changes. Selective cutting of trees, rather than clear-cuts, are now the norm over much of deer range. Less and different logging practices don’t provide deer with the abundance of good deer habitat that was once the norm.
In poor quality habitat, predators – especially wolves – can really keep the lid on deer herds. It a phenomenon David Mech and Patrick Karns identified in the Lake Superior Forest of Minnesota way back in the 1970’s. Similar results were documented in Algonquin Park, Ontario, about a decade earlier.
But these lessons were almost forgotten in the early years of the 21st century when winters were mild and deer numbers grew and grew and grew. But winter, the Grim Reaper, did return. Deer numbers are way down now.
The Good News
A population crash does have its silver lining. Fewer deer let over-browsed habitats recover, so over time, deer have more food and it’s yummier.
What a crash does is re-set the clock. If the range still has the fundamentals – a suitable mixture of food and cover – deer populations will recover.
Recovery is the stage of a cycle when deer are healthiest. It can also be the best time for hunters aiming for the trophy of a lifetime.
Keep in mind a buck doesn’t have to be old to produce a trophy-sized rack. Granted, most bucks are programmed to achieve their greatest antler growth in their fifth or sixth year, but that’s not a hard and fast rule. The late Ian McMurchy, the biologist who examined Milo Hanson’s world record Saskatchewan buck, told me he estimated Milo’s buck was maybe only 3 ½ years old, and certainly no more than 4 ½. Milo’s buck, taken near the town of Biggar, is like much of the Canadian prairies. Forest cover there is minimal and winters are frequently brutal. As a result, deer numbers are normally relatively low. Deer that do survive are big and healthy and whenever snow is minimal, the bounty of food is almost limitless. Antler growth can be phenomenal. In forested habitat with similar circumstances – a population below carrying capacity and abundant and nutritious food – expect to find trophy-sized bucks at relatively young ages.
Especially after a mild winter or two or three.
Closer to Home
In recent years, my home hunting grounds of northwestern Ontario gained a reputation as a deer hunting Mecca. Deer were everywhere, and hunters streamed in from across the continent, even from Europe. Many a hunter harvested their dream buck of a lifetime. Bag limits were liberal, and freezers were filled.
What happened was deer reached unbelievably high densities over wide areas, largely owing to consecutive and abnormally mild winters. There was also a bit of luck, as when deer first became abundant, and a deep snow winter came on schedule, deer didn’t take a hit like they normally would have. Coincidentally, the woods were full of arboreal lichens, a favourite winter food on northern ranges. A spruce budworm epidemic had just finished off killing millions of balsam trees, which had became encrusted with lichens as they died. Lichen abundance peaked the winter deer needed them the most.
Over the course of several more years and more mild winters, deer numbers burgeoned. Although they managed to vacuum up all of the lichens, food wasn’t much of an issue as long as snow cover was minimal.
But trouble was brewing. Starting with the 2007-08 winter, the pattern of low snow winters stopped. In the years since, most winters have been long, cold and snowy. And although a deer decline – even a crash – was evident by about 2015, wolf numbers remained stubbornly high.
Deer numbers, following the winter of 2022-23 that hung on into May, have now bottomed out here in northwestern Ontario. From what I see and hear and read, it’s the same in northern Manitoba, north-eastern Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, and elsewhere.
Will deer numbers return to their former robust levels?
I don’t know. There’s a famous quote by many, including the great Yogi Berra that says: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
But there will still be deer.
And hopefully, not only in our cities and towns.